Weekend preview: Nebraska visits Michigan State, and seven more to watch
Unbeaten Nebraska goes to East Lansing, Louisville hosts Georgia Tech, and three SEC matches with seeding on the line, with each team's numbers from the season so far.
Here are the matches we’re watching this weekend, with each team’s numbers from the season so far. Ranks are out of 348 D1 teams, through Oct. 29.
Nebraska at Michigan State, Saturday (Big Ten)
Nebraska is 21-0 and has lost one set in Big Ten play. Michigan State is one of the few teams that can match it in a stat that usually decides matches: it’s 3rd in D1 in point scoring.
| Nebraska | Michigan State | |
|---|---|---|
| Record (Big Ten) | 21-0 (10-0) | 17-3 (7-3) |
| RPI | 2 | 24 |
| Hitting % | .320 (2nd) | .277 (7th) |
| Opponent hitting % | .100 (1st) | .162 (27th) |
| Sideout % | 71.1% (1st) | 63.6% (15th) |
| Point scoring % | 51.6% (1st) | 48.0% (3rd) |
| Ace rate | 7.0% | 7.7% |
Nebraska leads D1 in sideout, point scoring, kill rate and opponent hitting. Michigan State’s edge is at the service line: it serves aces at a higher rate. Its weakness is passing, at 44.1% good (238th), and that’s the matchup to watch against Nebraska’s serve.
Nebraska won both meetings last season, 3-0 each time.
What’s at stake: Nebraska is the No. 1 overall seed in every one of our simulations and wins the title in 67% of them. Michigan State is safely in the field but hosts in only 5% of runs; a road win here would be the biggest result of its season.
Friday
Tennessee at Texas A&M (SEC)
Tennessee (16-3, 7-2) passes 59.2% good, 5th in D1, and hits .282 (5th). Texas A&M (13-8, 6-3) won at Georgia and swept at Kentucky last weekend, and its block (2.65 per set, 31st) is its best weapon. Texas A&M won the only meeting last season, 3-1 in Knoxville.
Tennessee hosts in 96% of our runs. Texas A&M hosts in 13%, and a win over a top-10 team would move it toward the line.
Missouri at Kentucky (SEC)
Kentucky (15-5, 7-3) lost both of its matches last weekend but still sides out 64.8% (10th). Missouri (13-8, 6-3) won at South Carolina and Georgia and has climbed from 42% to 75% to make the field. Kentucky won at Missouri last season, 3-1.
Kentucky gets a top-four seed in only 4% of our runs now. A third straight loss would likely end that chase.
Minnesota at UCLA (Big Ten)
Minnesota (12-6, 6-4) hits .271 (14th) and serves aces at 7.8% (36th), but it also misses 13.1% of its serves (319th). UCLA (15-6, 6-4) lost twice last weekend and its host odds fell to 16%. Minnesota is right on the host line at 55%. UCLA swept Minnesota last season.
Saturday and Sunday
Purdue at Penn State, Saturday (Big Ten)
Purdue (13-6, 6-4) passes 57.8% good, 8th in D1, against a Penn State team (15-5, 7-3) that holds opponents to .166 hitting (43rd). Penn State hosts in 80% of runs after beating Oregon and Ohio State this month. Purdue swept Penn State at home last season.
Georgia Tech at Louisville, Sunday, 12:00 ET (ACC Network)
Louisville (20-2, 10-0) holds opponents to .135 (6th) and is 2nd in D1 in point scoring. Georgia Tech (13-7, 5-4) is one of our last four teams in the field at 54%, and it serves aces at 8.1% (28th). Louisville won the meeting in Atlanta last season, 3-1.
Texas A&M at Texas, Sunday, 1:00 ET (ESPN)
Texas (11-7, 7-3) swept Georgia on Wednesday and is 14th in the RPI despite seven losses, because its opponents have won 71.8% of their matches. It hosts in 56% of our runs. Texas A&M passes 54.6% good (24th); Texas kills 38.2% of its attacks (44th). The teams split two meetings last season.