Week five: Tennessee and Texas A&M beat Kentucky, and Georgia falls off the bubble

The fifth weekend of league play in the seven conferences we track: 13 upsets, a Big Ten race that's Nebraska's to lose, and the biggest bubble move of the season.

Five weekends of conference play are done. Here’s what happened in the seven leagues we track, and what it did to the Bracketology projection, which now runs through Thursday’s matches.

The weekend in numbers

From Oct. 20 to Oct. 26 there were 94 conference matches in the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, Big East, WCC and Mountain West. Forty-four were sweeps and 19 went five. Home teams won 56 of 94. The lower-rated team in our power ratings won 13 times, and every league had at least one.

Here’s how often the team that won each stat also won the match:

Sideout won the week. Only five teams won while losing the sideout battle, and the closest was Tennessee over Kentucky: 64.4% to 64.6%, after the Vols came back from two sets down.

Bracketology, week five

Nebraska is a bigger favorite again

The four projected No. 1 seeds are still Nebraska, Pittsburgh, Louisville and Kentucky, but Kentucky’s hold on the fourth spot is the loosest it has been. Nebraska now wins the title in 67% of our simulations, up from 59% last week. Pittsburgh is at 17%, Louisville 10%, Florida 2% and Kentucky 1%.

Nebraska swept UCLA and USC and is 10-0 in the Big Ten with one set lost. Against USC it sided out 81.0% and held the Trojans to a .095 hitting percentage.

The host line

The top 16 host the first two rounds. The biggest moves among teams near the line:

Tennessee made the jump of the week: it came back from two sets down to beat Kentucky, then beat Vanderbilt in four. Kansas is new to the line at 61% after sweeping at TCU and winning 15-13 in the fifth at Baylor. UCLA lost at Nebraska and in five at Iowa and fell from 44% to 16%.

The bubble

Georgia had the worst week of any team in the projection. It lost at home to Texas A&M and Missouri, then was swept at Texas on Wednesday, and it now makes the field in 10% of runs, down from 60%. Missouri took its place: road wins at South Carolina and Georgia moved it from 42% to 75%. DePaul (48% to 77%) and Colorado (71% to 92%) are close to safe. Utah went the other way, from 80% to 53%, after home losses to Arizona State and Colorado.

The last at-large team sits around No. 43 in the RPI, and in 80% of runs the cutoff falls between No. 40 and No. 46. Twenty-nine teams make the field in at least 99% of runs, up from 23. There are 1,099 D1 matches left.

Bids by conference

Around the leagues

SEC

Florida (8-1) leads after sweeping LSU and Ole Miss. Tennessee (7-2) beat Kentucky 15-10 in the fifth after losing the first two sets, then beat Vanderbilt in four. Kentucky (7-3) lost both of its matches: the five-setter at Tennessee and a home sweep by Texas A&M, which also won in four at Georgia. Missouri swept at South Carolina and won in four at Georgia. LSU’s four-set win at Auburn was the league’s third upset.

Fun fact: Georgia’s Bianna Muoneke took 63 swings for 25 kills in the loss to Texas A&M.

Big Ten

Nebraska (10-0, 30-1 in sets) swept UCLA and USC. Wisconsin and Oregon (both 8-2) each lost once: Wisconsin 18-16 in the fifth at home to Washington, and Oregon in four at Penn State. Purdue beat Minnesota 15-13 in the fifth and swept Northwestern, which is still winless. Iowa’s five-set win over UCLA was the league’s third upset.

Fun fact: Washington’s Simona Mateska had 30 kills on 59 swings in the win at Wisconsin.

Big 12

BYU (9-0) beat Colorado and Arizona State, both in four. Kansas (7-2) swept at TCU, winning the first set 32-30, and then won 15-13 in the fifth at Baylor. Arizona State (7-2) won at Utah in four before losing at BYU, and Colorado won at Utah in four, the league’s only upset. Texas Tech (0-9) is still looking for its first league win.

Fun fact: Cincinnati’s Sydney Nolan took 85 swings for 28 kills, and libero Viktoria Ninova had 37 digs, in the five-set win over Arizona.

ACC

Louisville (10-0) swept at Florida State and won in four at Miami. Pittsburgh (9-1) swept at Georgia Tech and at Clemson, allowing 89 points in six sets. North Carolina (9-1) beat Cal in four and Stanford in five, and SMU (8-2) swept both of its road matches. Syracuse won its first league match, over Virginia in four. Wake Forest over NC State and Duke’s sweep of Cal were the other ACC upsets.

Fun fact: Stanford beat Duke 31-29 in the fourth set. Julia Blyashov had 25 kills and 22 digs for Stanford, and Duke’s Ashby Zubchevich had 26 kills.

Big East

Marquette (9-1) swept Butler and beat Xavier 16-14 in the fifth. Creighton (8-2) swept UConn and Providence, then won 16-14 in the fifth at Marquette on Thursday. DePaul (8-2) beat Xavier in five and swept Butler. Seton Hall won its first league match, in four at Georgetown, and Villanova beat St. John’s in five.

Fun fact: Xavier’s Margo Kemp had 24 kills on 47 swings at Marquette, and libero Kelsey Niesen added 34 digs, in a match Xavier lost 16-14 in the fifth.

WCC

Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine are tied at 8-1. LMU beat Santa Clara and swept San Francisco; Pepperdine swept San Francisco and beat Santa Clara in four. Saint Mary’s (8-2) was swept at home by San Diego, which also swept Pacific. Pacific is still winless.

Fun fact: Saint Mary’s Antonie Kelnarova had 25 kills on 45 swings in the win over Denver.

Mountain West

Hawaii (10-0) swept UNLV twice. UC Davis and New Mexico (both 7-3) are next; New Mexico beat San Jose State twice in four sets. Air Force’s five-set win at UTEP, a day after UTEP swept the first meeting, was the league’s only upset.

Fun fact: Grand Canyon beat Wyoming 30-28 in the fourth set and 15-9 in the fifth. Starr Williams had 26 kills for Grand Canyon; Wyoming’s Paige Lauterwasser had 25 kills and 20 digs.

The fine print

The weekly numbers are one- or two-match samples against conference opponents. The ratings adjust for who each team played. Where they stand now:

The projection updates with every day’s results. See the full bracket, every team’s odds and the bids by conference →